My savant level essay on Factions creeper prices being too damn high and overall the eco is cooked.

[2B2TClout]

[You may need to use the scroll bar right and left to view the charts in this essay]

Ok, What started this? I got into a debate in factions chat about the economy being busted for the average player, In particular for Creeper spawners (Pivotal for raiding on a raiding and defense based server) You really need at least 3k creepers to be a viable faction although you could with enough luck and diplomacy eeck by with 2k creepers. My opposers argued from the position of top factions players, While I argued from the position of a small faction leader. My hypothesis is that these ftop players have a lot of GC to buy (Or already possess) the best seasonals to grind easily while newer factions stand no chance due to not having GC, or can handle the extremely challenging learning curve to pvp in the pvp-enabled zones which can have better loot. So out of annoyance, I made this essay. It isnt perfect but I tried my hardest to argue on behalf of the player base that cannot play meaningfully (Which imo is why the factions sub-server is slowly dying)

Keep in mind, These charts assume the player does not have restroom breaks, Does not stop and eat dinner, Does not do other things on the game, Is woefully unemployed and for all arguments sake- Is basically just Scripting. The charts take out the human element and assumes you have NO LIFE outside of the game at all, Not even sleep.

These charts are geared towards the average new player. Who likely doesn't have vkits and all the meta PVP knowledge that allows them to successfully take advantage of dark zone, loot goblins, or *Most* competitive warzone events in any meaningful capacity. This assumes the player is like me, Lacking of GC and decent seasonal.

*Important note*: The nether wart farming graphs DOES assume you have access to a MAX cele hoe with full runes. Most players don't even have access to this and the costs for 3000 creeper spawners is literally impossible to farm with a regular hoe or even lower tier hoe as the map will end before they get to even a thousand. (Once again assuming nonstop play time) I couldn't do a breakdown on most hoes as the information isn't public on rates and are largely descriptive- Not formulative (Or use excessive RNG) I did not include spartan shovel as once again, your average noob isn't going to have a spartan shovel (These are 20GC+ for the lowest tier)

Formula

• Lightzone total kills: Kills(S) = 200 × S + 11,000 (valid for S > 70, i.e., all milestones below)
• Netherwart needed (baseline): NW(S) = 41,666.67 × S
• Netherwart needed with booster b: NW(S, b) = NW(S) ÷ (1 + b)
• Currency cost: Cost(S) = S × 1,531,250 (at 64 spawners/stack, 98,000,000/stack)

Lightzone drop rates are expressed as "1 in N" odds per kill, which is simply the probability of success per trial:
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Tier 1	1:500	p₁ = 1/500 = 0.002	0.002
Tier 2	1:300	p₂ = 1/300 ≈ 0.00333	0.00333
Tier 3	1:200	p₃ = 1/200 = 0.005	0.005

[th]Tier[/th][th]Odds[/th][th]Probability per kill (p)[/th][th]Expected spawners per kill (E)[/th]
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The breakdown for Lightzone kill needed per desired spawner count, Cost if farming with a Max Celestial hoe assuming the 25%,50%, and 75% money boosters.​

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100	31,000	153,125,000	4,166,667	3,333,333	2,777,778	2,380,952
200	51,000	306,250,000	8,333,333	6,666,667	5,555,556	4,761,905
500	111,000	765,625,000	20,833,333	16,666,667	13,888,889	11,904,762
1,000	211,000	1,531,250,000	41,666,667	33,333,333	27,777,778	23,809,524
2,000	411,000	3,062,500,000	83,333,333	66,666,667	55,555,556	47,619,048
3,000	611,000	4,593,750,000	125,000,000	100,000,000	83,333,333	71,428,571
4,000	811,000	6,125,000,000	166,666,667	133,333,333	111,111,111	95,238,095
5,000	1,011,000	7,656,250,000	208,333,333	166,666,667	138,888,889	119,047,619
10,000	2,011,000	15,312,500,000	416,666,667	333,333,333	277,777,778	238,095,238
20,000 Lightzone Kills Per Player, by Faction Size (1–6) (Since we are on a 6 mans map)​ 100 31,000 15,500 10,333 7,750 6,200 5,167 200 51,000 25,500 17,000 12,750 10,200 8,500 500 111,000 55,500 37,000 27,750 22,200 18,500 1,000 211,000 105,500 70,333 52,750 42,200 35,167 2,000 411,000 205,500 137,000 102,750 82,200 68,500 3,000 611,000 305,500 203,667 152,750 122,200 101,833 4,000 811,000 405,500 270,333 202,750 162,200 135,167 5,000 1,011,000 505,500 337,000 252,750 202,200 168,500 10,000 2,011,000 1,005,500 670,333 502,750 402,200 335,167 20,000 Updated Step 4: Swings, Time, and Potions (75 swings/min; Holding down right click assuming ZERO breaks)​ Time (minutes) = Swings ÷ 75 [Interesting feature of this is the sheer number of potions needed] 0% (baseline) 125,000,000 ≈18,939,394 ≈4,208.75 hrs (≈175.36 days) — 25% 100,000,000 ≈15,151,515 ≈3,367.00 hrs (≈140.29 days) ≈40,405 50% 83,333,333 ≈12,626,263 ≈2,805.84 hrs (≈116.91 days) ≈33,671 75% Cost of 3,000 Spawners in Currency​ Cost per spawner = 98,000,000 ÷ 64 = 1,531,250 Total cost for 3,000 spawners = 3,000 × 1,531,250 = 4,593,750,000 currency Step 1: The Mandatory Progression Phase​ Before Tier 3 is even unlocked, a player (or faction) must grind: 10,000 kills in Tier 1 (to unlock Tier 2) 15,000 additional kills in Tier 2 (to unlock Tier 3, on top of the 10,000) That's 25,000 mandatory kills before Tier 3 grinding even begins. But these kills aren't wasted — they still roll for spawner drops at their tier's rate: Expected Tier 1 spawners: 10,000 × (1/500) = 20 spawners Expected Tier 2 spawners: 15,000 × (1/300) = 50 spawners Total "free" spawners from progression: 70 spawners Step 2: The Tier 3 Grind for the Remainder​ Once Tier 3 is unlocked, the faction still needs: 3,000 − 70 = 2,930 more spawners Using the negative binomial expectation (E[trials] = r/p) at Tier 3's rate (p₃ = 1/200): Expected Tier 3 kills = 2,930 × 200 = 586,000 kills Step 3: Total Expected Kills for the Faction​ Adding the mandatory progression kills to the Tier 3 grind: Total = 10,000 + 15,000 + 586,000 = 611,000 kills This is the expected number of kills a faction — as a collective pool — needs to accumulate to hit its 3,000-spawner survival threshold. Alright so how long would this take??? Table 1 — Lightzone Time Per Player (Hours), by Milestone & Group Size​ (Assumes 60 kills/minute placeholder) Each number represents one hour! 100 8.61 4.31 2.87 2.15 1.72 1.44 200 14.17 7.08 4.72 3.54 2.83 2.36 500 30.83 15.42 10.28 7.71 6.17 5.14 1,000 58.61 29.31 19.54 14.65 11.72 9.77 2,000 114.17 57.08 38.06 28.54 22.83 19.03 3,000 169.72 84.86 56.57 42.43 33.94 28.29 4,000 225.28 112.64 75.09 56.32 45.06 37.55 5,000 280.83 140.42 93.61 70.21 56.17 46.81 10,000 558.61 279.31 186.20 139.65 111.72 93.10 20,000 1,114.17 557.08 371.39 278.54 222.83 185.69 [th]Spawners[/th][th]n=1[/th][th]n=2[/th][th]n=3[/th][th]n=4[/th][th]n=5[/th][th]n=6[/th] Table 2 — Netherwart Farming Time Per Player (Hours, Baseline/No Booster), by Milestone & Group Size​ 100 140.29 70.15 46.76 35.07 28.06 23.38 200 280.58 140.29 93.53 70.15 56.12 46.76 500 701.46 350.73 233.82 175.36 140.29 116.91 1,000 1,402.92 701.46 467.64 350.73 280.58 233.82 2,000 2,805.84 1,402.92 935.28 701.46 561.17 467.64 3,000 4,208.75 2,104.38 1,402.92 1,052.19 841.75 701.46 4,000 5,611.67 2,805.84 1,870.56 1,402.92 1,122.33 935.28 5,000 7,014.59 3,507.30 2,338.20 1,753.65 1,402.92 1,168.77 10,000 14,029.18 7,014.59 4,676.39 3,507.30 2,805.84 2,338.20 20,000 28,058.36 14,029.18 9,352.79 7,014.59 5,611.67 4,676.39 [th]Spawners[/th][th]n=1[/th][th]n=2[/th][th]n=3[/th][th]n=4[/th][th]n=5[/th][th]n=6[/th] 71,428,571 ≈10,822,511 ≈2,405.00 hrs (≈100.21 days) ≈28,861 [th] Booster[/th][th]Netherwart Needed[/th][th]Swings Needed[/th][th]Time to Farm[/th][th]Potions Needed[/th] 4,011,000 2,005,500 1,337,000 1,002,750 802,200 668,500 [th] Spawners (S)[/th][th]n=1[/th][th]n=2[/th][th]n=3[/th][th]n=4[/th][th]n=5[/th][th]n=6[/th]	4,011,000	30,625,000,000	833,333,333	666,666,667	555,555,556	476,190,476

[th]Spawners (S)[/th][th]Lightzone Kills (Total)[/th][th]Currency Cost[/th][th]Netherwart @0%[/th][th]Netherwart @25%[/th][th]Netherwart @50%[/th][th]Netherwart @75%[/th]
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